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ASML Holding N.V.
Company overview
ASML is the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Every leading-edge semiconductor in the world is printed on one of them. The company does not compete in a market. It defines one.
Investment case
A structural monopoly on the pickaxe of the AI build-out, sold to a handful of customers willing to pay €350M per tool. The growth story rests on how long leading-edge demand keeps compounding.
Hard questions
- What breaks if Intel or Samsung stop pushing the leading edge?
- How much of the order book is effectively locked in, versus subject to geopolitical veto?
Dive deeper
A monopoly supplier of the single most expensive tool in semiconductor fabrication.
Decades of R&D, a supplier ecosystem that would take years to reconstruct.
Revenue compounded 14% for five years at 51% gross margins.
Four customers. Half of revenue in one. Geopolitics is now a first-order variable.
Trading at 31x forward earnings. The question is growth, not quality.
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The problem
Institutional research costs $24,000 a year. The alternative is a hot tip from a podcast.
The gap between professional and retail investors has never been about intelligence. It's been about access to careful, unhurried research. That's the gap we close.
What you get
Research worth reading on a Sunday morning.
Institutional depth
Five research domains that mirror how a professional analyst thinks about a business. Written long enough to matter, structured so you can skip what you already know.
Grounded in real data
Every workspace is built on five years of financials and the last four earnings call transcripts. Claude Sonnet reads the primary sources. No training-data hallucinations.
Your thesis, your words
A thesis page opens the moment you start researching. Why interesting. Key drivers. Bear case. Fair value. Decision. The AI gives you the brief. You do the thinking.
Not just AI
Grounded in the same primary sources a professional analyst would use.
Every research workspace is built on real financials and real transcripts, not paraphrased summaries. Claude reads them. You read the result.
Financial statements
Five years of income, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Key metrics & ratios
ROIC, margins, growth rates, and multiples.
Earnings call transcripts
The last four quarterly calls, verbatim.
Synthesizer
Claude
Reads the primary sources. Structures the analysis.
Your report
- 01Business
- 02Moat
- 03Numbers
- 04Management
- 05Risk
- 06Value
- 06Your thesis
Financial statements
Five years of income, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Key metrics & ratios
ROIC, margins, growth rates, and multiples.
Earnings call transcripts
The last four quarterly calls, verbatim.
Synthesizer
Claude
Reads the primary sources. Structures the analysis.
Your report
- 01Business
- 02Moat
- 03Numbers
- 04Management
- 05Risk
- 06Value
- 06Your thesis
The five domains
A structure you can actually reason about.
Every research workspace is organized around five domains. Read the ones that matter for this company. Skip the rest. Nothing pretends to be a score.
Business
Business model, customers, geographic distribution
- How the company makes money, in plain English
- Who the customers are and what they actually pay for
- The shape of the revenue model
Moat
Durable advantage, lock-in, pricing power, market position
- What makes the business hard to replicate
- Who runs it and how they've spent capital
- Where pricing power comes from
Numbers
Forensic financials, earnings quality, segment economics
- Five years of revenue, margins, ROIC, and free cash flow
- How the latest earnings call framed the quarter
- Peer comparison against the closest competitors
Management
Capital allocation, growth capacity, alignment, integrity
Risk
Recession resilience, disruption, sector and regulatory risk
- The bear case, written without hedging
- A systematic scan for ten classic red flags
- A 13-criterion quality checklist
Value
Reverse DCF, qualitative valuation, conclusion
- Fair value estimated across scenarios
- Multiples compared to the peer set
- An honest read on whether today's price gives you room
My Thesis
Your conviction, your words
The five domains are the analyst's brief. This is where you sit with it, write down what you believe, set a fair value range, and decide if you want to own the business.
How research works
Four deliberate steps. No shortcuts.
Read the company page
A free, AI-free overview of the business. What they do, who pays them, what the numbers look like. No account needed.
Start your workspace
One click. One Claude Sonnet call. A two-minute kickoff brief with the investment case, hard questions, and a preview of the five domains.
Dive deeper where it matters
Pick the domains you care about for this company. Each one is a fresh deep dive, generated on demand, with the primary sources cited.
Write your thesis
Fill in why you care, what has to go right, and where you would pay. The app asks. You decide.
The payoff
The AI reads the 10-K. You decide if you want to own it.
Other tools stop at the summary. This one opens a thesis page the moment you start researching and asks you to fill it in as you read.
Why the business is interesting. What has to go right. The bear case. A fair value range you wrote yourself. A decision, in your own words. The report is the setup. The thesis is the point.
My Thesis
Why interesting
Key drivers
- EUV tool sales through the decade
- High-NA EUV ramp starting in 2026
- Service revenue from installed base
Break conditions
- Intel or Samsung step back from cutting edge
- Export restrictions widen to all customers
- Service margins compress materially
Bear case
Fair value range
€640 — €820
DCF at 9% discount, 3% terminal
Decision
Watch
Wait for a pullback below €640
Numbers, visualized
Every Numbers deep dive comes with live charts.
Built from the same FMP snapshot the written analysis uses. Hover any point for the underlying value — the charts are real, not screenshots.
Revenue & net income
Revenue and net income, fiscal years 2021 to 2025. Source: company filings via FinancialModelingPrep.
Margin trends
Margin trends, fiscal years 2021 to 2025. Source: company filings via FinancialModelingPrep.
ASML Holding N.V., five fiscal years. See the full example
Simple, honest pricing
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Free
- 2 research workspaces per month
- The full kickoff brief
- Every domain deep dive
- Unlimited company pages and search
Pro
- Unlimited research workspaces
- All five domain deep dives per company
- PDF export
- Share links
- Portfolio and Research labels
- New features as we ship them
Our philosophy
“Good investing is boring. It's reading annual reports by a fireplace. It's understanding businesses deeply. It's patience rewarded over decades.”
We don't sell excitement. We don't gamify investing. We don't send push notifications. We help you understand businesses deeply so you can make better decisions. That's it.
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